One reason Blackburn may pass on Burchett for her Senate seat if she wins Tennessee governor
Republican nominee Marsha Blackburn is, less than a week out from Election Day, still the frontrunner for Tennessee’s upcoming governor race.
What This Story Is About
- There’s a reason Marsha Blackburn may not want to pick U.S. Rep. Tim Burchett to fill her Senate seat if she win’s Tennessee’s governor race.
Why It Matters
- Burchett is currently a rumored frontrunner to be picked as Blackburn’s replacement.
What Happens Next
- Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3. Polls close at 8 p.m. EDT.
For Context
- Burchett sits on a list with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and former Knox County Mayor Glenn Jacobs as possible Blackburn replacements.
Catch Up
KNOXVILLE, Tenn. (WVLT) - Republican nominee Marsha Blackburn is, less than a week out from Election Day, still the frontrunner for Tennessee’s upcoming governor race. A Blackburn win would mean she’d likely pick her U.S. Senate replacement, and there’s one reason why she may not want to pick the heavily-rumored U.S. Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Knoxville).
Dr. Andrew Busch is a professor at the University of Tennessee and the associate director of the university’s Institute of American Civics. He outlined what’s likely to happen if Blackburn takes the governor race. Right now, there’s three names being thrown around for her replacement: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, former Knox County Mayor Glenn Jacobs and Rep. Burchett.
Busch said there’s a reality where the GOP may not want to tap Burchett for Blackburn’s Senate seat; it would trigger a vacancy election, leaving his seat empty for up to several months, which could affect the strength of a republican-controlled House.
Picking Burchett could leave his seat empty for months
In the U.S. House, a vacant seat triggers a vacancy election. While a Senate vacancy is filled by that state’s governor, it’s up to the voters to pick who would replace Burchett. A vacancy election doesn’t happen overnight, though; it could take some time before voters get to pick who replaces him, if he heads to the other wing of the Capitol Building.
“I think there would be a couple of months, perhaps, when there would not be a republican there,” Busch said. “If Congressman Burchett is selected, there would be a vacancy election. There is no appointment of temporary members of the House. It’s all by election.”
Busch said vacancy elections tend to happen “as soon as practicable,” and he estimated filling Burchett’s seat could take one or two months.
Why does an empty Burchett seat matter to the GOP?
Whether or not Burchett’s seat vacancy matters to republicans comes down to how strong a hold, if any, the party keeps on the U.S. House. If the GOP keeps a slim majority, the party may not want to give up a republican voice for as long as it takes to fill the seat.
“If Republicans somehow hold on to their majority in the House, it’s going to be very small, and they may not want that 60 days of losing somebody,” Busch said. “All things being equal, if I were the speaker of the House and the republicans hold on to their majority, I probably would rather he not do that.”
Busch said Burchett’s seat being empty could mean a slight risk in the short run.
What needs to happen for this concern to actually matter to republican lawmakers?
A lot of metaphorical stars need to align to create this concern.
Burchett is up for reelection on Nov. 3, and it’s possible he could lose his seat. A Burchett without a House position means the GOP doesn’t need to worry about his vacancy. That said, it’s unlikely that he’ll lose out to his democrat opponent, Michaela Barnett, based on past results.
“[Burchett’s seat] is one of the safest Republican seats, or has always been perceived to be, in the United States,” Busch said. “In fact, it’s the longest streak of a single party holding a congressional seat in the history of the United States; going back to the 1850s— there’s been a Republican.”
Should Burchett keep his House seat, the GOP would need to keep a slim majority for his months-long vacancy to create concern. And keeping that majority is unlikely, according to Busch.
“In terms of the national picture, I would say it’s very likely that democrats are going to gain control of the House,” Busch said. “Republicans have, I think right now, a four-seat majority, which means that if they lose two seats, it’s a tie; if they lose three seats, democrats have the majority. And historically, it’s extremely rare for the president’s party not to lose at least that many seats.”
Busch said democrats across the nation wouldn’t need to see a huge swing to disrupt the republicans’ control of the House.
“There have only been three cases since the late 1800s when the president’s party has actually gained seats in the midterm elections, and usually they lose quite a few more than three,” Busch said. “And you wouldn’t really need a blue wave. You would just need a blue trickle to flip the House.”
if the republicans lose the house, Busch said there’s not much of a point in worrying about a vacant seat.
“If the Republicans lose their majority in the House, I don’t think it matters,” he said.
Either way, Burchett has his eyes set on the Senate
In our conversations with Burchett’s camp, Campaign Manager Thomas McAfee confirmed the congressman was “absolutely” planning to run for Senate in 2028.
Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3. Polls close at 8 p.m. EDT.
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